Time and cost make frequent group meetings infeasible.ĭisagreements among individuals are so severe or politically unpalatable that the communication process must be refereed and/or anonymity assured. More individuals are needed than can effectively interact in a face-to-face exchange. The problem does not lend itself to precise analytical techniques but can benefit from subjective judgments on a collective basis. Typically one of the following leads to the need for using the Delphi: 6)? Depending on the answers to these questions, one may then choose the Delphi as the most effective research tool for the study at hand. They suggest these guiding questions: "Who is it that should communicate about the problem, what alternative mechanisms are available for that communication, and what can we expect to obtain with these alternatives" (p. In selecting the most appropriate research tool, however, Linstone and Turoff (1975) caution the researcher to consider the circumstances surrounding the "necessarily associated group communication process" (p. This research technique allows educators, amongst others, to communicate and effectively develop trends, needs, or other factors relative to a particular area of education. Critical to this communication process are four factors: "some feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge some assessment of the group judgment or view some opportunity for individuals to revise views and some degree of anonymity for the individual responses" (Linstone & Turoff, 1975, p. This structure permits the process to be an effective way to allow a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. Linstone and Turoff (1975) characterize the Delphi as a method for structuring a group communication process. The contributions of individuals via this tool produce a group perspective not otherwise obtainable. Thus, the structuring of group communications is an essential component of the Delphi. This research tool permits researchers to combine the reports or testimony of a group of experts into one, useful statement.Īdler and Ziglio (1996) describe the Delphi method as a communication process that is structured to produce a detailed examination of a topic/problem and discussion from the participating group, but not one that forces a quick compromise. Its purpose is to solicit reliable responses from a panel of experts regarding a particular problem or dilemma. The Delphi technique had its genesis at the Rand Corporation in the early 1950s as a forecasting tool for the military. The Delphi technique affords the researcher such an opportunity. With the rate of change in today's workplace, it is necessary to investigate future trends and needs in career and technical education. But then, how does one achieve consensus or agreement about topic X? Survey research doesn't provide a vehicle through which to achieve this goal. It would be relatively simple to ask a sample of the appropriate population their opinion about topic X. Companies and educational institutions today are still concerned about customers' and students' wants and needs, but many times are also interested in the opinions of experts in the field and not simply a market analysis. Due to fluctuations in the economy and World War II, marketing surveys became important later in history as a tool to investigate the needs of consumers. Survey research was first used in 1790 with the first U.S. This goal presents a unique research situation. For example, consensus among educators in a specific area about what technologies should be taught in today's technology-based world would be important to many educators and their students. On occasion, however, one wishes to collect opinions of experts and, to the greatest extent possible, achieve consensus among them. Research literature in career and technical education is replete with studies using survey research as a means of seeking answers to any number of different questions.
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